Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sturm Graz win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for Austria Vienna had a probability of 34.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sturm Graz win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8%) and 0-2 (6.17%). The likeliest Austria Vienna win was 2-1 (8.03%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.