Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 55.77%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 23.24% and a draw had a probability of 20.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.44%) and 1-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (5.93%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.