Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 64.68%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 16.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 3-1 (7.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.23%), while for a Ludogorets Razgrad win it was 1-2 (4.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.