Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 50.58%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Spartak Trnava had a probability of 23.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.72%) and 1-2 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Spartak Trnava win it was 1-0 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.