Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 60.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Spartak Trnava had a probability of 18.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.46%) and 1-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.6%), while for a Spartak Trnava win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ludogorets Razgrad would win this match.