Aston Villa vs AZ Alkmaar - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.