UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Group Stage

Oct 5, 2023 at 8pm UK

AFAS Stadion

AZ
1 - 0
Legia

Pavlidis (52')
Ryan (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Ribeiro (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Legia Warsaw, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: AZ 4-0 Sittard
Sunday, October 1 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Legia Warsaw

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Jagiellonia 2-0 Legia
Sunday, October 1 at 7pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 62.84%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Legia Warsaw had a probability of 17.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.16%) and 1-0 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.96%), while for a Legia Warsaw win it was 1-2 (4.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Legia Warsaw
62.84% ( 0.06)	19.66% ( -0.02)	17.5% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 58.52% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.46% (

-0)

36.54%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.31% (

-0)

58.69% (

-0)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.88% (

0.02)

11.12% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.45% (

0.03)

35.54% (

-0.04)

Legia Warsaw Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.84% (

-0.05)

34.16% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.15% (

-0.05)

70.85% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 62.84%

Legia Warsaw 17.5%

Draw 19.66%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Legia Warsaw
2-1 @ 9.84% 2-0 @ 9.16% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.34% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.21% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.71% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.96% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.87% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.13% 5-1 @ 1.74% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 0.93% Other @ 3.66% Total : 62.84%	1-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.8% 3-3 @ 1.39% ( -0) Other @ 0.22% Total : 19.66%	1-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.08% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.8% Total : 17.5%