Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 32.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.33%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Willem II win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
