Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 39.39%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 35.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.2%) and 0-2 (6.11%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 2-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that RKC Waalwijk would win this match.