Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 46.62%. A win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 27.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest PEC Zwolle win was 0-1 (7.51%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.