Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 40.6%. A win for Almere City had a probability of 34.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.36%). The likeliest Almere City win was 2-1 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.