/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fajalog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fexclog.png)
-
Julian Brandt
32'
-
Tolu Arokodare
64'
-
Oscar Gloukh
85'
-
Jan Plug
35'
-
Lennard Hartjes
45'+1'
-
Aymen Sliti
62'
-
Irakli Yegoian
85'
Ajax vs SBV Excelsior - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Ftolu-arokodare-celebrates-with-abdellah-ouazane-and-oliver-edvardsen-after-scoring-for-ajax-on-august-27-2026-olaf-kraak-anp-6a9957c011b3f450956446.jpg)
Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 21.05% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 19.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%) , while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
Result
Ajax
59.9%
▼
(-0.29)
Draw
21.05%
▲
(+0.11)
SBV Excelsior
19.02%
▲
(+0.17)
Both Teams to Score:
61.26%
▲
(+0.23)
Goals
Over 1.5
83.87%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 1.5
16.13%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 2.5
64.14%
▲
(+0.10)
Under 2.5
35.86%
▼
(-0.11)
Over 3.5
42.29%
▲
(+0.19)
Under 3.5
57.71%
▼
(-0.19)
Over 4.5
27.91%
▲
(+0.18)
Under 4.5
72.09%
▼
(-0.18)
First Half Winner
Ajax
50.02%
▲
(+0.17)
Draw
33.48%
▼
(-0.65)
SBV Excelsior
16.5%
▲
(+0.49)
Team To Score First
Ajax
70.14%
▼
(-0.13)
No Goal
3.87%
▼
(-0.03)
SBV Excelsior
25.99%
▲
(+0.15)
Corners
Over 8
60.59%
▼
(-0.33)
Equal 8
10.94%
▼
(-0.17)
Under 8
28.48%
▲
(+0.50)
Over 9
49.2%
▼
(-0.13)
Equal 9
11.39%
▼
(-0.20)
Under 9
39.41%
▲
(+0.33)
Over 10.5
38.3%
▲
(+0.08)
Under 10.5
61.7%
▼
(-0.08)
Ajax Goals
Over 1.5
61.48%
▼
(-0.15)
Under 1.5
38.52%
▲
(+0.15)
Over 2.5
35.55%
▼
(-0.09)
Under 2.5
64.45%
▲
(+0.08)
Over 3.5
16.9%
▼
(-0.08)
Under 3.5
83.1%
▲
(+0.07)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5
57.14%
▲
(+0.29)
Under 0.5
42.86%
▼
(-0.29)
Over 1.5
27.79%
▲
(+0.38)
Under 1.5
72.21%
▼
(-0.39)
Over 2.5
9.34%
▲
(+0.29)
Under 2.5
90.66%
▼
(-0.30)
Over 3.5
3.06%
▲
(+0.17)
Under 3.5
96.94%
▼
(-0.16)
Score analysis
Ajax
59.88%
Draw
21.05%
SBV Excelsior
19.03%
Ajax
2-1
@
9.73%
▼
(-0.05)
1-0 @ 8.28% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 8.11% ▼ (-0.06)
3-1 @ 6.42% ▼ (-0.03)
3-0 @ 5.95% ▼ (-0.10)
3-2 @ 4.78% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 16.61% ▼ (-0.13)
Total : 59.88%
1-0 @ 8.28% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 8.11% ▼ (-0.06)
3-1 @ 6.42% ▼ (-0.03)
3-0 @ 5.95% ▼ (-0.10)
3-2 @ 4.78% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 16.61% ▼ (-0.13)
Total : 59.88%
Draw
1-1
@
9.26%
▼
(-0.01)
2-2 @ 6.13% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 3.87% ▼ (-0.03)
3-3 @ 1.5% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 0.29% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 21.05%
2-2 @ 6.13% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 3.87% ▼ (-0.03)
3-3 @ 1.5% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 0.29% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 21.05%
SBV Excelsior
1-2
@
5.17%
▲
(+0.04)
0-1 @ 3.94% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 2.37% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.96% ▲ (+0.03)
1-3 @ 1.83% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 2.77% ▲ (+0.11)
Total : 19.03%
0-1 @ 3.94% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 2.37% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.96% ▲ (+0.03)
1-3 @ 1.83% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 2.77% ▲ (+0.11)
Total : 19.03%
Head to Head
Eredivisie
Gameweek
21
-
Gyan de Regt
62'
-
Miliano Jonathans
63'
-
Lewis Schouten
63'
-
Miliano Jonathans
74'
-
Arthur Zagré
79'
-
Mike van Duinen
89'
-
Mika Godts
21'
-
Mika Godts
40'
-
Oliver Edvardsen
67'
-
Wout Weghorst
67'
-
Jinairo Johnson
80'
-
Takehiro Tomiyasu
80'
