Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lillestrom win with a probability of 44.69%. A win for Aalesund had a probability of 33.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lillestrom win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.13%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest Aalesund win was 2-1 (6.97%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.