Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarpsborg 08 win with a probability of 46.04%. A win for Aalesund had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarpsborg 08 win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.88%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Aalesund win was 2-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.