Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarpsborg 08 win with a probability of 45.22%. A win for Lillestrom had a probability of 31.77% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarpsborg 08 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.02%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Lillestrom win was 1-2 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarpsborg 08 would win this match.