Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aalesund win with a probability of 37.45%. A win for Fredrikstad had a probability of 36.84% and a draw had a probability of 25.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Aalesund win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.21%) and 2-0 (5.73%). The likeliest Fredrikstad win was 0-1 (8.97%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.