Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 53.66%. A win for Manchester City Under-21s had a probability of 23.88% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.74%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Manchester City Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lincoln City would win this match.

Result
Lincoln City	Draw	Manchester City Under-21s
53.66% ( 0.05)	22.47% ( -0.02)	23.88% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 58.92% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.24% (

0.09)

40.76% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.85% (

0.09)

63.15% (

-0.08)

Lincoln City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.8% (

0.05)

15.2% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.16% (

0.09)

43.84% (

-0.08)

Manchester City Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.48% (

0.03)

30.52% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.26% (

0.04)

66.75% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Lincoln City 53.66%

Manchester City Under-21s 23.88%

Draw 22.47%

Lincoln City	Draw	Manchester City Under-21s
2-1 @ 9.77% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.74% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.13% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.17% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.89% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.09% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 2.93% Total : 53.66%	1-1 @ 10.37% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.64% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.44% ( 0) Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.47%	1-2 @ 6.16% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.51% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.44% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.29% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0) Other @ 2.92% Total : 23.88%