Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 44.48%. A win for Lincoln City had a probability of 29.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Lincoln City win was 1-0 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.