EFL Cup

EFL Cup | Quarter-Finals

Dec 21, 2021 at 7.45pm UK

Emirates Stadium

Arsenal
5 - 1
Sunderland

Nketiah (17', 49', 58'), Pepe (27'), Patino (90+1')
Balogun (54')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Broadhead (31')
Gooch (20'), Hume (60'), Wright (76'), Doyle (85')

Reaction

Arsenal's Charlie Patino celebrates scoring their fifth goal with Eddie Nketiah and Rob Holding on December 21, 2021

Highly-rated teen Charlie Patino scores on Arsenal debut

Highly-rated Arsenal midfielder Charlie Patino scores on his debut for the senior team to cap off a 5-1 victory over Sunderland in the EFL Cup quarter-finals.

Dec 21, 21:52

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 56.56%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Sunderland had a probability of 20.45%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.97%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%), while for a Sunderland win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.

Result
Arsenal	Draw	Sunderland
56.56%	22.99%	20.45%

Both teams to score 52.46%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.91%

47.09%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.67%

69.33%

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.56%

16.44%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.88%

46.12%

Sunderland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.78%

37.22%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.99%

74%

Score Analysis

Arsenal 56.55%

Sunderland 20.45%

Draw 22.98%

Arsenal	Draw	Sunderland
1-0 @ 11.04% 2-0 @ 9.97% 2-1 @ 9.86% 3-0 @ 6% 3-1 @ 5.93% 3-2 @ 2.93% 4-0 @ 2.71% 4-1 @ 2.68% 4-2 @ 1.32% 5-0 @ 0.98% 5-1 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.16% Total : 56.55%	1-1 @ 10.91% 0-0 @ 6.12% 2-2 @ 4.87% 3-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.98%	0-1 @ 6.05% 1-2 @ 5.4% 0-2 @ 2.99% 1-3 @ 1.78% 2-3 @ 1.61% 0-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.65% Total : 20.45%