Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 39.92%. A win for Almere City had a probability of 37.53% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.4%) and 2-0 (5.07%). The likeliest Almere City win was 1-2 (8.67%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.