Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 66.09%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Guarani had a probability of 12.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.13%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.88%), while for a Guarani win it was 0-1 (5.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Independiente in this match.