Independiente del Valle
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 28, 2025 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Barcelona SC (Ecuador)

Independiente
2 - 1
Barcelona

Mercado (64', 64'), Ibarra (69', 69')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Caicedo (24', 24')
Caicedo (25'), Caicedo (25'), Chala (75'), Chala (75'), Cortez (84'), Cortez (84')
Chala (87'), Chala (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Independiente del Valle and Barcelona SC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente del Valle

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Last Game: River Plate 6-2 Independiente
Friday, May 16 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Barcelona SC

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Last Game: Universitario 1-0 Barcelona
Thursday, May 15 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 60.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Barcelona SC had a probability of 17.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.23%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a Barcelona SC win it was 0-1 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Independiente del Valle in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Independiente del Valle.

Result
Independiente del ValleDrawBarcelona SC
60.66% (-0.176 -0.18)22.18% (0.18 0.18)17.16% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
Both teams to score 49.22% (-0.575 -0.57)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.52% (-0.759 -0.76)48.48% (0.758 0.76)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.39% (-0.696 -0.7)70.61% (0.696 0.7)
Independiente del Valle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.47% (-0.315 -0.31)15.53% (0.314 0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.54% (-0.586 -0.59)44.46% (0.585 0.59)
Barcelona SC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.27% (-0.461 -0.46)41.73% (0.459 0.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.8% (-0.402 -0.4)78.2% (0.40199999999999 0.4)
Score Analysis
    Independiente del Valle 60.64%
    Barcelona SC 17.16%
    Draw 22.17%
Independiente del ValleDrawBarcelona SC
1-0 @ 12.06% (0.24 0.24)
2-0 @ 11.23% (0.1 0.1)
2-1 @ 9.82% (-0.029000000000002 -0.03)
3-0 @ 6.98% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.1% (-0.085 -0.09)
4-0 @ 3.25% (-0.039 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.84% (-0.07 -0.07)
3-2 @ 2.67% (-0.071 -0.07)
4-2 @ 1.24% (-0.046 -0.05)
5-0 @ 1.21% (-0.028 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1.06% (-0.038 -0.04)
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 60.64%
1-1 @ 10.54% (0.079999999999998 0.08)
0-0 @ 6.48% (0.2 0.2)
2-2 @ 4.29% (-0.066 -0.07)
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 22.17%
0-1 @ 5.67% (0.106 0.11)
1-2 @ 4.61% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.48% (0.016 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.34% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.25% (-0.035 -0.04)
Other @ 1.82%
Total : 17.16%

How you voted: Independiente vs Barcelona

Independiente del Valle
91.7%
Draw
0.0%
Barcelona SC
8.3%
12
Head to Head
Apr 2, 2025 3am
Group Stage
Barcelona
1-0
Independiente
Carabali (5')
Arroyo (31'), Arreaga (61'), Eugenio Gomez Cuero (86'), Caicedo (90+5')

Schunke (24'), Quinonez (85')
Oct 22, 2020 1.30am
Group Stage
Independiente
2-0
Barcelona
Jonatan Ortiz (24'), Torres (60')
Segovia (33'), Murillo (43')

Alvez (10'), Orejuela (31'), Velasco (86')
Mar 4, 2020 10.15pm
Group Stage
Barcelona
0-3
Independiente

Riveros (27'), Pinatares (53'), Aimar (71')
Pineida (81')
Torres (55'), Calle (88'), Pellerano (90' pen.)
Faravelli (45'), Preciado (58'), Pinos (69')
rhs 2.0


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