Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jamaica win with a probability of 39.67%. A win for Venezuela had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jamaica win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Venezuela win was 0-1 (11.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Venezuela would win this match.

Result
Jamaica	Draw	Venezuela
39.67% ( 0.3)	28.62% ( 0.02)	31.71% ( -0.32)

Both teams to score 45.42% (

-0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.09% (

-0.11)

60.91% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.07% (

-0.08)

80.93% (

0.08)

Jamaica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.04% (

0.12)

29.96% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.93% (

0.15)

66.07% (

-0.15)

Venezuela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.85% (

-0.28)

35.15% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.1% (

-0.3)

71.9% (

0.3)

Score Analysis

Jamaica 39.67%

Venezuela 31.71%

Draw 28.62%

Jamaica	Draw	Venezuela
1-0 @ 12.69% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.65% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 3.21% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.07% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.68% ( -0) 4-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.47% Total : 39.67%	1-1 @ 13.27% 0-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.18% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.62%	0-1 @ 11.01% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 6.94% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 5.76% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.13% Total : 31.71%