Copa America | Group Stage

Jun 28, 2024 at 11pm UK

Vale Farm Stadium

Colombia
3 - 0
Costa Rica

Diaz (31' pen.), Sanchez (59'), Cordoba (62')
Rios (41'), Cordoba (64')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ugalde (17')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa America clash between Colombia and Costa Rica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Colombia

All competitions

Copa America

Last Game: Colombia 2-1 Paraguay
Monday, June 24 at 11pm in Copa America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Costa Rica

All competitions

Copa America

Last Game: Brazil 0-0 Costa Rica
Tuesday, June 25 at 2am in Copa America

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Colombia	1	1	3
2	Brazil	1	0	1
3	Costa Rica	1	0	1
4	Paraguay	1	-1	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 54.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 22.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Costa Rica win it was 0-1 (6.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.

Result
Colombia	Draw	Costa Rica
54.77% ( -0.02)	23.17% ( -0.03)	22.06% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 54.21% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.09% (

0.18)

45.91% (

-0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.78% (

0.17)

68.22% (

-0.16)

Colombia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.36% (

0.06)

16.65% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.51% (

0.1)

46.49% (

-0.1)

Costa Rica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.03% (

0.14)

34.97% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.29% (

0.15)

71.71% (

-0.15)

Score Analysis

Colombia 54.76%

Costa Rica 22.06%

Draw 23.17%

Colombia	Draw	Costa Rica
1-0 @ 10.43% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.36% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.88% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.59% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.51% 4-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.12% Total : 54.76%	1-1 @ 10.96% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.82% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.17% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.17%	0-1 @ 6.12% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.76% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.21% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.13% ( 0) Other @ 2.02% Total : 22.06%