Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 40.64%. A win for Jamaica had a probability of 30.39% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.01%) and 1-2 (7.98%). The likeliest Jamaica win was 1-0 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for USA in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for USA.