Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honduras win with a probability of 43.34%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 30.63% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honduras win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Honduras would win this match.