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Canada national football team
CONCACAF Nations League | Semi-Finals
Mar 21, 2025 at 2.30am UK
Masafi Stadium
Mexico national football team

Canada
vs.
Mexico

Coverage of the CONCACAF Nations League Semi-Finals clash between Canada and Mexico.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Canada 3-0 Suriname
Wednesday, November 20 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
Current Group A Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina359
2Canada3-14
3Chile3-12
4Peru3-31
All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Mexico 4-0 Honduras
Wednesday, November 20 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Canada win with a probability of 45.91%. A win for Mexico has a probability of 29.32% and a draw has a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Mexico win is 0-1 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.69%).

Result
CanadaDrawMexico
45.91%24.76%29.32%
Both teams to score 56.05%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.21%46.79%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.95%69.05%
Canada Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.55%20.45%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.1%52.9%
Mexico Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.45%29.54%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.43%65.57%
Score Analysis
    Canada 45.91%
    Mexico 29.32%
    Draw 24.76%
CanadaDrawMexico
1-0 @ 9.59%
2-1 @ 9.28%
2-0 @ 7.61%
3-1 @ 4.91%
3-0 @ 4.03%
3-2 @ 2.99%
4-1 @ 1.95%
4-0 @ 1.6%
4-2 @ 1.19%
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 45.91%
1-1 @ 11.69%
0-0 @ 6.04%
2-2 @ 5.66%
3-3 @ 1.22%
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.76%
0-1 @ 7.37%
1-2 @ 7.13%
0-2 @ 4.49%
1-3 @ 2.9%
2-3 @ 2.3%
0-3 @ 1.83%
Other @ 3.32%
Total : 29.32%

Head to Head
Sep 11, 2024 2am
Friendlies 1
Mexico
0-0
Canada
Araujo (18'), Huerta (26'), Mozo (69')
Choiniere (57'), Laryea (65'), Sigur (88')
Nov 17, 2021 2.05am
Third Round
Canada
2-1
Mexico
Henry (13')
Lozano (14'), Araujo (90+8')
Oct 8, 2021 2.40am
Jul 30, 2021 3am
Semi-Finals
Mexico
2-1
Canada
Pineda (45+2' pen.), Herrera (90+9')
Gutierrez (68'), Gallardo (79')
Buchanan (57')
Henry (45'), Buchanan (49'), Hoilett (49'), Crepeau (90+12')
Jun 20, 2019 3.30am
Group Stage
Mexico
3-1
Canada
Alvarado (40'), Guardado (54', 77')
Cavallini (75')
Kaye (79')
rhs 2.0
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