Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 45.76%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 27.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Honduras win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.