Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shandong Taishan win with a probability of 79.05%. A draw had a probability of 13.8% and a win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 7.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shandong Taishan win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.29%) and 1-0 (10.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.58%), while for a Changchun Yatai win it was 0-1 (2.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Shandong Taishan would win this match.