Chinese Super League | Gameweek 12
Jun 8, 2023 at 12.35pm UK
Changchun's People Stadium
Shenzhen FC

Changchun
4 - 1
Shenzhen

Jinxian (10'), Leonardo (34' pen.), Long (41'), Serginho (70')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Shahsat (48' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Chinese Super League clash between Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Changchun Yatai

All competitions
Last Game: Beijing Guoan 4-3 Changchun
Friday, June 2 at 12.35pm in Chinese Super League

Shenzhen

All competitions
Last Game: Zhejiang 3-0 Shenzhen
Friday, June 2 at 12.35pm in Chinese Super League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Changchun Yatai win with a probability of 58.2%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Shenzhen had a probability of 17.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Changchun Yatai win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a Shenzhen win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Changchun Yatai would win this match.

Result
Changchun YataiDrawShenzhen
58.2% (0.779 0.78)23.94% (-0.5 -0.5)17.87% (-0.276 -0.28)
Both teams to score 45.43% (0.892 0.89)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.73% (1.454 1.45)54.27% (-1.452 -1.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.34% (1.201 1.2)75.66% (-1.197 -1.2)
Changchun Yatai Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.55% (0.846 0.85)18.45% (-0.845 -0.84)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.36% (1.409 1.41)49.64% (-1.406 -1.41)
Shenzhen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.71% (0.522 0.52)44.28% (-0.519 -0.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.64% (0.421 0.42)80.35% (-0.419 -0.42)
Score Analysis
    Changchun Yatai 58.19%
    Shenzhen 17.87%
    Draw 23.93%
Changchun YataiDrawShenzhen
1-0 @ 13.81% (-0.41 -0.41)
2-0 @ 11.66% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-1 @ 9.51% (0.111 0.11)
3-0 @ 6.57% (0.156 0.16)
3-1 @ 5.35% (0.202 0.2)
4-0 @ 2.78% (0.138 0.14)
4-1 @ 2.26% (0.143 0.14)
3-2 @ 2.18% (0.113 0.11)
5-0 @ 0.94% (0.071 0.07)
4-2 @ 0.92% (0.07 0.07)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 58.19%
1-1 @ 11.24% (-0.18 -0.18)
0-0 @ 8.17% (-0.474 -0.47)
2-2 @ 3.87% (0.1 0.1)
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 23.93%
0-1 @ 6.66% (-0.285 -0.29)
1-2 @ 4.58% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
0-2 @ 2.71% (-0.075 -0.08)
1-3 @ 1.24% (0.017 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.05% (0.042 0.04)
Other @ 1.62%
Total : 17.87%

Head to Head
Dec 10, 2022 11am
gameweek 30
Shenzhen
0-2
Changchun
Long (3', 11')
Sep 30, 2022 10.30am
gameweek 18
Changchun
1-0
Shenzhen
Long (4')
Dec 29, 2021 12pm
gameweek 20
Shenzhen
0-1
Changchun

Yongpo (79')
Jie (70')
Jie (54'), Mao (85')
Dec 16, 2021 12pm
gameweek 16
Changchun
1-1
Shenzhen
Negrao (6')
Li (41')
Quintero (77')
Dalun (43'), Dai (82')