Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Meizhou Hakka win with a probability of 48.54%. A win for Shenzhen had a probability of 27.1% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Meizhou Hakka win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.49%) and 0-2 (8.1%). The likeliest Shenzhen win was 1-0 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.