Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chongqing Tongliang Long win with a probability of 39.24%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 32.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chongqing Tongliang Long win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 (9.4%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.