Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wuhan Three Towns win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 35.27% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wuhan Three Towns win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.4%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.