Championship Gameweek 9
Oct 10, 2026 3.00pm
Vicarage Road

Watford vs Burnley - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Watford

All competitions
Last game
Sep 18, 2026 8.00pm
Bristol City 1 - 0 Watford
Goals scored
7
Top scorer
Amin Nabizada

Burnley

All competitions
Last game
Sep 19, 2026 3.00pm
Burnley 1 - 1 Derby
Goals scored
9
Top scorer
Zeki Amdouni

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Watford win with a probability of 49.3%. A draw has a probability of 25.56% and a win for Burnley has a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.87%) and 2-0 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.99%) , while for a Burnley win it is 0-1 (7.15%).

Result

Watford 49.3% ▲ (+0.67)
Draw 25.56% ▼ (-0.41)
Burnley 25.1% ▼ (-0.31)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.25% ▼ (-0.15)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.72% ▲ (+0.36)
Under 1.5 26.28% ▼ (-0.36)
Over 2.5 49.06% ▲ (+0.68)
Under 2.5 50.94% ▼ (-0.68)
Over 3.5 26.03% ▲ (+0.32)
Under 3.5 73.97% ▼ (-0.32)
Over 4.5 14.32% ▲ (+0.39)
Under 4.5 85.68% ▼ (-0.38)

First Half Winner

Watford 34.71% ▲ (+0.06)
Draw 42.9% ▲ (+0.79)
Burnley 22.39% ▼ (-0.85)

Team To Score First

Watford 56.7% ▲ (+0.80)
No Goal 7.56% ▼ (-0.16)
Burnley 35.74% ▼ (-0.65)

Corners

Over 8 65.76% ▲ (+2.20)
Equal 8 10.89% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 8 23.34% ▼ (-2.04)
Over 9 53.9% ▲ (+2.15)
Equal 9 11.87% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 9 34.24% ▼ (-2.19)
Over 10.5 42.13% ▲ (+1.93)
Under 10.5 57.87% ▼ (-1.93)

Watford Goals

Over 1.5 45.46% ▲ (+0.79)
Under 1.5 54.54% ▼ (-0.79)
Over 2.5 20.04% ▲ (+0.56)
Under 2.5 79.96% ▼ (-0.56)
Over 3.5 7.09% ▲ (+0.34)
Under 3.5 92.91% ▼ (-0.33)

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5 60.34% ▼ (-0.38)
Under 0.5 39.66% ▲ (+0.38)
Over 1.5 26.51% ▼ (-0.25)
Under 1.5 73.49% ▲ (+0.25)
Over 2.5 8.43% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 2.5 91.57% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 3.5 2.25% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 3.5 97.75% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

Watford 49.31%
Draw 25.55%
Burnley 25.09%
Watford
1-0 @ 11.52% ▼ (-0.10)
2-1 @ 9.87% ▲ (+0.15)
2-0 @ 9% ▲ (+0.16)
3-1 @ 4.82% ▲ (+0.09)
3-0 @ 4.63% ▲ (+0.14)
3-2 @ 2.57% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 6.9% ▲ (+0.30)
Total : 49.31%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.99% ▼ (-0.20)
0-0 @ 7.56% ▼ (-0.16)
2-2 @ 4.88% ▼ (-0.13)
Other @ 0.19% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 25.55%
Burnley
0-1 @ 7.15% ▼ (-0.16)
1-2 @ 6.95% ▲ (+0.09)
0-2 @ 3.68% ▼ (-0.27)
1-3 @ 2.01% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.67% ▲ (+0.07)
0-3 @ 1.57% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 2.06% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 25.09%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 43
Apr 18, 2025 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 1
FT Vicarage Road
  • Mamadou Doumbia 8' goal
  • Moussa Sissoko 59' yellowcard
  • Moussa Sissoko 60' redcard
  • Edo Kayembe 66' yellowcard
  • Imran Louza 69' yellowcard
  • Edo Kayembe 69' redcard
  • Vakoun Issouf Bayo 84' yellowcard
  • Ryan Andrews 90'+7' yellowcard
  • goal Zian Flemming 43'
  • goal Josh Brownhill 58'
  • yellowcard Zian Flemming 61'
  • yellowcard Josh Cullen 66'
  • yellowcard Jeremy Sarmiento 90'+7'
  • yellowcard James Trafford 90'+8'
Championship Gameweek 22
Dec 21, 2024 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Turf Moor
  • Jaidon Anthony 9' goal
  • Josh Laurent 49' yellowcard
  • Josh Brownhill 62' goal
  • CJ Egan Riley 64' yellowcard
  • James Trafford 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jeremy Ngakia 41'
  • goal Kwadwo Baah 80'
Championship Gameweek 32
Feb 14, 2023 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Turf Moor
  • Michael Obafemi 90'+5' goal
  • goal Joao Pedro 32'
Championship Gameweek 3
Aug 12, 2022 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Vicarage Road
  • Tom Cleverley 45'+2' goal
  • Hassane Kamara 81' redcard
  • Yaser Asprilla 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Josh Brownhill 85'
Premier League Gameweek 35
Apr 30, 2022 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT
  • James Tarkowski 8' goal
  • Juraj Kucka 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard James Tarkowski 48'
  • goal Jack Cork 83'
  • goal Josh Brownhill 86'
  • yellowcard Nathan Collins 90'+1'
Premier League Gameweek 17
Feb 5, 2022 6.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Dale Stephens 45' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Joshua King 20'
  • yellowcard Tom Cleverley 90'+1'