Championship Gameweek 7
Sep 12, 2026 3.00pm
Vicarage Road

Watford vs Stoke City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Watford

All competitions
Last game
Sep 8, 2026 7.45pm
Watford 2 - 1 Preston
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Amin Nabizada

Stoke City

All competitions
Last game
Sep 8, 2026 7.45pm
Cardiff 1 - 1 Stoke
Goals scored
9
Top scorer
Ethan Galbraith

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Watford win with a probability of 51.93%. A draw has a probability of 25.63% and a win for Stoke City has a probability of 22.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.11%) , while for a Stoke City win it is 0-1 (7.29%).

Result

Watford 51.93% (+0.39)
Draw 25.63% (-0.45)
Stoke City 22.43% (+0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

49.49% (-0.81)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.84% (-0.82)
Under 1.5 28.16% (+0.83)
Over 2.5 46.61% (-1.19)
Under 2.5 53.39% (+1.19)
Over 3.5 24.62% (-0.65)
Under 3.5 75.38% (+0.65)
Over 4.5 13.59% (-0.18)
Under 4.5 86.41% (+0.18)

First Half Winner

Watford 40.81% (+2.96)
Draw 38.31% (-2.95)
Stoke City 20.88% (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Watford 59.29% (+1.37)
No Goal 8.06% (-0.02)
Stoke City 32.65% (-1.36)

Corners

Over 8 64.94% (-2.74)
Equal 8 10.87% (+0.38)
Under 8 24.19% (+2.36)
Over 9 53.21% (-2.84)
Equal 9 11.73% (+0.12)
Under 9 35.06% (+2.74)
Over 10.5 41.65% (-2.70)
Under 10.5 58.35% (+2.70)

Watford Goals

Over 1.5 46.03% (-0.51)
Under 1.5 53.97% (+0.51)
Over 2.5 20.36% (-0.54)
Under 2.5 79.64% (+0.55)
Over 3.5 7.19% (-0.12)
Under 3.5 92.81% (+0.13)

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5 57.2% (-0.93)
Under 0.5 42.8% (+0.93)
Over 1.5 23.16% (-0.61)
Under 1.5 76.84% (+0.61)
Over 2.5 6.84% (+0.05)
Under 2.5 93.16% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 1.71% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 98.29% (-0.03)

Score analysis

Watford 51.94%
Draw 25.64%
Stoke City 22.43%
Watford
1-0 @ 12.82% (+0.66)
2-1 @ 9.94% (-0.18)
2-0 @ 9.72% (+0.42)
3-0 @ 5.12% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 4.7% (-0.26)
3-2 @ 2.55% (-0.14)
Other @ 7.09% (-0.13)
Total : 51.94%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.11% (-0.09)
0-0 @ 8.06% (-0.02)
2-2 @ 4.57% (-0.28)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 25.64%
Stoke City
0-1 @ 7.29% (+0.20)
1-2 @ 5.81% (-0.28)
0-2 @ 3.39% (+0.04)
1-3 @ 1.77% (+0.09)
2-3 @ 1.44% (+0.08)
0-3 @ 1.12% (-0.10)
Other @ 1.61% (+0.04)
Total : 22.43%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 38
Mar 14, 2026 3.00pm
3
1
HT : 1 0
FT Bet365 Stadium
  • Million Manhoef 28' goal
  • Ben Gibson 70' yellowcard
  • Sam Gallagher 71' yellowcard
  • Million Manhoef 77' goal
  • Ben Pearson 79' yellowcard
  • Jesurun Rak-Sakyi 79' yellowcard
  • Tatsuki Seko 83' yellowcard
  • Sam Gallagher 85' goal
  • yellowcard Nestory Irankunda 62'
  • yellowcard Nampalys Mendy 71'
  • yellowcard Pierre Ekwah 71'
  • goal Nestory Irankunda 81'
  • yellowcard Edoardo Bove 86'
  • yellowcard Luca Kjerrumgaard 86'
Championship
Dec 20, 2025 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Vivaldo Semedo 66' yellowcard
  • Matthew Pollock 69' yellowcard
  • Luca Kjerrumgaard 74' goal
  • Nestory Irankunda 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Robert Bozenik 30'
  • yellowcard Sorba Thomas 59'
  • yellowcard Maksym Talovierov 83'
Championship Gameweek 35
Mar 1, 2025 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Bet365 Stadium
  • Ben Pearson 33' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Imran Louza 33'
  • yellowcard Giorgi Chakvetadze 69'
Championship Gameweek 2
Aug 17, 2024 3.00pm
3
0
HT : 0 0
FT Vicarage Road
  • Vakoun Issouf Bayo 31' yellowcard
  • Vakoun Issouf Bayo 31' yellowcard
  • Edo Kayembe 47' goal
  • Edo Kayembe 47' goal
  • Ryan Andrews 49' goal
  • Ryan Andrews 49' goal
  • Edo Kayembe 73' goal
  • Edo Kayembe 73' goal
  • Francisco Sierralta 88' yellowcard
  • Francisco Sierralta 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jordan Thompson 55'
  • yellowcard Jordan Thompson 55'
  • yellowcard Josh Laurent 90'
  • yellowcard Josh Laurent 90'
Championship Gameweek 25
Dec 29, 2023 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Vicarage Road
  • Jake Livermore 15' goal
  • Valerien Ismael 15' yellowcard
  • Ismael Kone 42' yellowcard
  • Jake Livermore 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Vakoun Issouf Bayo 52' redcard
  • Giorgi Chakvetadze 72' yellowcard
  • James Morris 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Junior Tchamadeu 14'
  • goal Ryan Mmaee 34'
Championship Gameweek 3
Aug 19, 2023 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Bet365 Stadium
  • Luke McNally 29' yellowcard
  • Luke McNally 29' yellowcard
  • Wesley 52' yellowcard
  • Andre Vidigal 53' goal
  • Jordan Thompson 77' yellowcard
  • Daniel Johnson 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ismael Kone 60'