Championship Gameweek 3
Aug 29, 2026 3.00pm
St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton vs Millwall - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions
Last game
Aug 22, 2026 3.00pm
Southampton 3 - 1 Stoke
Goals scored
4
Top scorer
Cyle Larin

Millwall

All competitions
Last game
Aug 22, 2026 12.30pm
Millwall 3 - 0 Norwich
Goals scored
5
Top scorer
Josh Coburn

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Southampton win with a probability of 40.95%. A win for Millwall has a probability of 31.76% and a draw has a probability of 27.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Millwall win is 0-1 (8.35%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.69%).

Result

Southampton 40.95% (-3.75)
Draw 27.29% (-0.36)
Millwall 31.76% (+4.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.22% (+1.19)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.88% (+0.73)
Under 1.5 26.12% (-0.74)
Over 2.5 49% (+0.75)
Under 2.5 51% (-0.75)
Over 3.5 26.49% (+0.25)
Under 3.5 73.51% (-0.25)
Over 4.5 14.06% (-0.33)
Under 4.5 85.94% (+0.32)

First Half Winner

Southampton 30.66% (-0.70)
Draw 42.27% (-1.81)
Millwall 27.08% (+2.52)

Team To Score First

Southampton 46.76% (-2.65)
No Goal 7.57% (-0.50)
Millwall 45.67% (+3.15)

Corners

Over 8 61.34% (-3.43)
Equal 8 10.41% (+0.27)
Under 8 28.25% (+3.16)
Over 9 50.43% (-3.43)
Equal 9 10.9% (-0.01)
Under 9 38.66% (+3.43)
Over 10.5 39.89% (-3.15)
Under 10.5 60.11% (+3.15)

Southampton Goals

Over 1.5 39.93% (-2.51)
Under 1.5 60.07% (+2.51)
Over 2.5 16.16% (-1.77)
Under 2.5 83.84% (+1.78)
Over 3.5 5.36% (-0.88)
Under 3.5 94.64% (+0.88)

Millwall Goals

Over 0.5 66.49% (+3.35)
Under 0.5 33.51% (-3.36)
Over 1.5 32.73% (+3.62)
Under 1.5 67.27% (-3.63)
Over 2.5 11.88% (+1.70)
Under 2.5 88.12% (-1.69)
Over 3.5 3.32% (+0.45)
Under 3.5 96.68% (-0.45)

Score analysis

Southampton 40.94%
Draw 27.3%
Millwall 31.77%
Southampton
1-0 @ 10.21% (-0.74)
2-1 @ 8.89% (-0.48)
2-0 @ 7.03% (-0.84)
3-1 @ 3.83% (-0.23)
3-0 @ 3.55% (-0.45)
3-2 @ 2.27% (-0.23)
Other @ 5.16% (-0.81)
Total : 40.94%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.69% (-0.09)
0-0 @ 7.57% (-0.50)
2-2 @ 5.69% (+0.32)
3-3 @ 1.15%
Other @ 0.2% (-0.06)
Total : 27.3%
Millwall
0-1 @ 8.35% (+0.53)
1-2 @ 7.74% (+0.96)
0-2 @ 5.15% (+0.91)
1-3 @ 2.92% (+0.50)
0-3 @ 2.33% (+0.47)
2-3 @ 2.16% (+0.28)
Other @ 3.12% (+0.52)
Total : 31.77%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 25
Jan 1, 2026 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT St. Mary's Stadium
  • Finn Azaz 46' yellowcard
  • Tom Fellows 59' yellowcard
  • Adam Armstrong 59' yellowcard
  • Jay Robinson 78' yellowcard
  • Caspar Jander 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Billy Mitchell 75'
  • yellowcard Danny McNamara 75'
  • yellowcard Joe Bryan 83'
  • yellowcard Aidomo Emakhu 83'
  • yellowcard Ra'ees Bangura-Williams 87'
Championship
Nov 29, 2025 3.00pm
3
2
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Femi Azeez 72' goal
  • Caleb Taylor 81' goal
  • Alex Neil 83' yellowcard
  • Tristan Crama 90'+7' goal
  • Tristan Crama 90'+7' yellowcard
  • Tristan Crama 90'+8' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Tom Fellows 36'
  • yellowcard Adam Armstrong 47'
  • goal Adam Armstrong 55'
  • goal Finn Azaz 87'
Club Friendlies 3
Aug 3, 2024 1.00pm
0
1
HT : 1 0
FT The Den
  • 27' goal
  • goal Adam Armstrong 64'
Championship Gameweek 34
Feb 24, 2024 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 2 4
FT St. Mary's Stadium
  • Che Adams 34' goal
  • Che Adams 34' goal
  • Jack Stephens 43' yellowcard
  • Jack Stephens 44' yellowcard
  • Samuel Edozie 84' yellowcard
  • Taylor Harwood-Bellis 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Kyle Walker-Peters 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Japhet Tanganga 5'
  • goal Japhet Tanganga 5'
  • yellowcard George Honeyman 8'
  • yellowcard George Honeyman 8'
  • yellowcard Japhet Tanganga 13'
  • yellowcard Japhet Tanganga 13'
  • goal Zian Flemming 44'
  • goal Zian Flemming 44'
  • yellowcard Matija Sarkic 90'+1'
Championship Gameweek 15
Nov 4, 2023 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT The Den
  • Murray Wallace 55' yellowcard
  • Ryan Longman 70' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Flynn Downes 75'
  • yellowcard Jan Bednarek 90'+1'
  • goal Ryan Fraser 90'+3'
League Cup
Aug 26, 2014 7.45pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Matthew Briggs 36' yellowcard
  • goal Jack Cork 52'
  • yellowcard Graziano Pelle 84'
  • yellowcard Matt Targett 89'
  • goal Graziano Pelle 93'