Championship Gameweek 11
Oct 17, 2026 12.30pm
Riverside Stadium

Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Middlesbrough

All competitions
Last game
Oct 13, 2026 8.00pm
Stoke 2 - 3 Middlesbrough
Goals scored
20
Top scorer
Will Lankshear

Cardiff City

All competitions
Last game
Oct 13, 2026 7.45pm
Cardiff 5 - 1 Watford
Goals scored
16
Top scorer
Jack Moylan

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 49.03%. A win for Cardiff City has a probability of 27.54% and a draw has a probability of 23.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Cardiff City win is 1-2 (6.75%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.44%).

Result

Middlesbrough 49.03% ▼ (-1.05)
Draw 23.43% ▲ (+0.31)
Cardiff City 27.54% ▲ (+0.75)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.37% ▼ (-0.18)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.61% ▼ (-0.44)
Under 1.5 20.39% ▲ (+0.45)
Over 2.5 58.33% ▼ (-0.45)
Under 2.5 41.71% ▲ (+0.49)
Over 3.5 35.81% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 3.5 64.19% ▲ (+0.18)
Over 4.5 21.61% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 4.5 78.39% ▲ (+0.18)

First Half Winner

Middlesbrough 38.62% ▼ (-0.04)
Draw 37.27% ▼ (-0.13)
Cardiff City 24.1% ▲ (+0.16)

Team To Score First

Middlesbrough 56.89% ▼ (-0.12)
No Goal 5.11% ▲ (+0.16)
Cardiff City 38% ▼ (-0.04)

Corners

Over 8 69.16% ▲ (+0.18)
Equal 8 9.6% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 8 21.24% ▼ (-0.25)
Over 9 58.45% ▲ (+0.07)
Equal 9 10.71% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 9 30.84% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 10.5 47.47% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 10.5 52.53% ▲ (+0.06)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 1.5 50.45% ▼ (-0.99)
Under 1.5 49.55% ▲ (+0.99)
Over 2.5 24.76% ▼ (-0.68)
Under 2.5 75.24% ▲ (+0.68)
Over 3.5 9.93% ▼ (-0.33)
Under 3.5 90.07% ▲ (+0.32)

Cardiff City Goals

Over 0.5 64.64% ▲ (+0.55)
Under 0.5 35.36% ▼ (-0.55)
Over 1.5 32.69% ▲ (+0.54)
Under 1.5 67.31% ▼ (-0.54)
Over 2.5 12.8% ▲ (+0.34)
Under 2.5 87.2% ▼ (-0.33)
Over 3.5 4.15% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 3.5 95.85% ▼ (-0.13)

Score analysis

Middlesbrough 49.02%
Draw 23.43%
Cardiff City 27.55%
Middlesbrough
2-1 @ 9.97% ▼ (-0.18)
1-0 @ 9.07% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 7.14% ▼ (-0.21)
3-1 @ 5.33% ▼ (-0.14)
3-0 @ 4.35% ▼ (-0.21)
3-2 @ 3.47% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 9.69% ▼ (-0.34)
Total : 49.02%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.44% ▲ (+0.09)
2-2 @ 5.96% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 5.11% ▲ (+0.16)
3-3 @ 1.68% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.24% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 23.43%
Cardiff City
1-2 @ 6.75% ▲ (+0.08)
0-1 @ 6.21% ▲ (+0.25)
0-2 @ 3.71% ▲ (+0.15)
1-3 @ 2.9% ▲ (+0.09)
2-3 @ 2.62% ▲ (+0.06)
0-3 @ 1.45% ▲ (+0.06)
Other @ 3.91% ▲ (+0.12)
Total : 27.55%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 26
Jan 4, 2025 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Riverside Stadium
  • Emmanuel Latte Lath 12' goal
  • Ben Doak 75' yellowcard
  • Dan Barlaser 89' yellowcard
  • goal Calum Chambers 21'
  • yellowcard Callum O'Dowda 30'
  • yellowcard Andy Rinomhota 76'
  • yellowcard Alex Robertson 80'
Championship Gameweek 4
Aug 31, 2024 12.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT Cardiff City Stadium
  • Emmanouil Siopis 5' yellowcard
  • Jesper Daland 39' yellowcard
  • goal Matt Clarke 55'
  • yellowcard Aidan Morris 69'
  • goal Aaron Ramsey 82' (OG)
Championship Gameweek 45
Apr 27, 2024 3.00pm
1
4
HT : 0 1
FT Cardiff City Stadium
  • Josh Bowler 90'+1' goal
  • goal Matt Clarke 45'
  • goal Finn Azaz 49'
  • goal Emmanuel Latte Lath 56'
  • goal Alex Gilbert 60'
Championship Gameweek 10
Oct 3, 2023 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Riverside Stadium
  • Isaiah Jones 56' goal
  • Sam Greenwood 75' yellowcard
  • Emmanuel Latte Lath 84' goal
  • yellowcard Karlan Grant 32'
  • yellowcard Perry Ng 36'
  • yellowcard Dimitrios Goutas 80'
Championship Gameweek 31
Feb 11, 2023 3.00pm
1
3
HT : 1 2
FT Cardiff City Stadium
  • Sory Kaba 25' goal
  • goal Marcus Forss 17'
  • goal Cameron Archer 38'
  • goal Riley McGree 90'
Championship Gameweek 10
Sep 13, 2022 7.45pm
2
3
HT : 0 3
FT Riverside Stadium
  • Duncan Watmore 76' goal
  • Rodrigo Muniz 77' goal
  • goal Callum O'Dowda 4'
  • goal Neil Harris 20'
  • goal Perry Ng 45'