Champions League Gameweek 4
Nov 3, 2026 8.00pm
Estadio de la Cerámica

Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Villarreal

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Sep 8, 2026 8.00pm
Dortmund 3 - 2 Villarreal

Paris Saint-Germain

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Sep 9, 2026 8.00pm
PSG 6 - 1 Slovan Bratislava

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 50.97%. A win for Villarreal has a probability of 29.06% and a draw has a probability of 19.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (6.9%) and 0-1 (6.86%). The likeliest Villarreal win is 2-1 (6.62%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (8.75%).

Result

Villarreal 29.06% ▲ (+2.00)
Draw 19.97% ▼ (-0.70)
Paris Saint-Germain 50.97% ▼ (-1.36)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.91% ▲ (+1.52)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.18% ▲ (+1.25)
Under 1.5 15.82% ▼ (-1.25)
Over 2.5 65% ▲ (+1.86)
Under 2.5 35% ▼ (-1.86)
Over 3.5 42.77% ▲ (+2.05)
Under 3.5 57.23% ▼ (-2.05)
Over 4.5 28.33% ▲ (+1.74)
Under 4.5 71.67% ▼ (-1.74)

First Half Winner

Villarreal 29.83% ▲ (+0.92)
Draw 35.14% ▼ (-0.52)
Paris Saint-Germain 35.03% ▼ (-0.40)

Team To Score First

Villarreal 44.72% ▼ (-1.43)
No Goal 3.6% ▼ (-0.46)
Paris Saint-Germain 51.68% ▲ (+1.90)

Corners

Over 8 57.05% ▼ (-2.23)
Equal 8 10.95% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 8 32% ▲ (+2.13)
Over 9 45.96% ▼ (-2.15)
Equal 9 11.09% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 9 42.95% ▲ (+2.23)
Over 10.5 35.58% ▼ (-1.93)
Under 10.5 64.42% ▲ (+1.93)

Villarreal Goals

Over 1.5 35.37% ▲ (+1.84)
Under 1.5 64.63% ▼ (-1.85)
Over 2.5 15.58% ▲ (+1.12)
Under 2.5 84.42% ▼ (-1.13)
Over 3.5 5.45% ▲ (+0.37)
Under 3.5 94.55% ▼ (-0.36)

Paris Saint-Germain Goals

Over 0.5 80.42% ▼ (-0.71)
Under 0.5 19.58% ▲ (+0.70)
Over 1.5 54.88% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 1.5 45.12% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 2.5 29.89% ▲ (+0.59)
Under 2.5 70.11% ▼ (-0.58)
Over 3.5 14.17% ▲ (+1.21)
Under 3.5 85.83% ▼ (-1.22)

Score analysis

Villarreal 29.06%
Draw 19.98%
Paris Saint-Germain 50.97%
Villarreal
2-1 @ 6.62% ▲ (+0.33)
1-0 @ 5.37% ▲ (+0.21)
2-0 @ 3.51% ▲ (+0.30)
3-1 @ 3.31% ▲ (+0.31)
3-2 @ 3.14% ▲ (+0.25)
3-0 @ 1.91% ▲ (+0.27)
Other @ 5.2% ▲ (+0.38)
Total : 29.06%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.75% ▼ (-0.29)
2-2 @ 5.61% ▲ (+0.15)
0-0 @ 3.6% ▼ (-0.46)
3-3 @ 1.77% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 0.25% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 19.98%
Paris Saint-Germain
1-2 @ 9.34% ▼ (-0.34)
0-2 @ 6.9% ▼ (-0.66)
0-1 @ 6.86% ▼ (-1.00)
1-3 @ 5.54% ▼ (-0.10)
0-3 @ 4.36% ▼ (-0.44)
2-3 @ 4.05% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 13.92% ▲ (+1.24)
Total : 50.97%