Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Sep 19, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stade Municipal Georges Lefevre

PSG
2 - 0
Dortmund

Mbappe (49' pen.), Hakimi (58')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Schlotterbeck (66'), Can (67'), Ryerson (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Paris Saint-Germain

All competitions

Last Game: PSG 2-3 Nice
Friday, September 15 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Last Game: Freiburg 2-4 Dortmund
Saturday, September 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 36.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.36%) and 3-1 (5.09%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
41.58% ( 0.04)	22.13% ( 0.02)	36.28% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 68.61% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.45% (

-0.13)

31.54% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.97% (

-0.16)

53.03% (

0.16)

Paris Saint-Germain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.95% (

-0.04)

16.05% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.59% (

-0.08)

45.41% (

0.08)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.73% (

-0.09)

18.27% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.67% (

-0.15)

49.33% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

Paris Saint-Germain 41.58%

Borussia Dortmund 36.28%

Draw 22.13%

Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 8.34% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.09% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.91% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 4.32% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.33% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.98% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.37% ( 0) 4-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.77% Total : 41.58%	1-1 @ 9.12% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 7.09% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.93% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.54% Total : 22.13%	1-2 @ 7.75% ( 0) 0-1 @ 4.98% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.24% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 4.02% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.4% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.87% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 2.87% Total : 36.28%