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Bundesliga | Gameweek 31
May 5, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
Coface Arena
Schalke
Mainz
2 - 3
Schalke
Barreiro (53'), Caricol (70')
Ajorque (40'), Caci (90+11'), Barreiro (90+13'), Kohr (90+14')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bulter (26', 90+12' pen.), Krauss (60')
Drexler (90+14')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Schalke 04, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wolfsburg 3-0 Mainz
Sunday, April 30 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Schalke 2-1 Werder Bremen
Saturday, April 29 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 1-0 Schalke 04

Mainz will be looking for an immediate response after last week's disappointment but may not find it easy against a side fighting for their lives. There have been just 16 goals in the last 10 meetings between the sides, and Schalke remain the league's lowest scorers so may struggle, especially on the road. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 54.76%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 23.17% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 1-2 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05DrawSchalke 04
54.76% (0.0039999999999978 0) 22.07% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 23.17% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 59.44% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.33% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)39.66% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.98% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)62.01% (0.044000000000004 0.04)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.54% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)14.46% (0.013 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.58% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)42.42% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Schalke 04 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.49% (-0.031000000000006 -0.03)30.51% (0.032 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.27% (-0.035999999999994 -0.04)66.73% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 54.76%
    Schalke 04 23.17%
    Draw 22.06%
Mainz 05DrawSchalke 04
2-1 @ 9.79% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-0 @ 8.53% (0.013 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.25% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.31% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 5.32% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 3.75% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 3.05% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-0 @ 2.57% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-2 @ 1.81% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 1.18% (-0.002 -0)
5-0 @ 0.99% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.2%
Total : 54.76%
1-1 @ 10.12%
2-2 @ 5.81% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-0 @ 4.41% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.48% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 22.06%
1-2 @ 6.01% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-1 @ 5.24% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.11% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-3 @ 2.38% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 2.3% (-0.004 -0)
0-3 @ 1.23% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 23.17%

How you voted: Mainz vs Schalke

Mainz 05
78.5%
Draw
15.1%
Schalke 04
6.5%
93
Head to Head
Nov 9, 2022 7.30pm
gameweek 14
Schalke
1-0
Mainz
Terodde (10')
Mollet (21')
Mar 5, 2021 7.30pm
gameweek 24
Schalke
0-0
Mainz

Kolasinac (9'), Mascarell (85')

Bell (47'), Szalai (51')
Nov 7, 2020 2.30pm
gameweek 7
Mainz
2-2
Schalke
Brosinski (6' pen.), Mateta (45+2' pen.)
Latza (64')
Uth (36'), St Juste (82' og.)
Kabak (44'), Laumann (54')
Feb 16, 2020 5pm
gameweek 22
Mainz
0-0
Schalke

Bruma (33'), Brosinski (53')

Todibo (58'), Kutucu (86')
Sep 20, 2019 7.30pm
gameweek 5
Schalke
2-1
Mainz
Serdar (36'), Harit (89')
McKennie (47')
Onisiwo (74')
Brosinski (65')
rhs 2.0
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen13112038112735
2Bayern MunichBayern13102144143032
3Stuttgart13100333151830
4RB Leipzig1492334151929
5Borussia DortmundDortmund147432823525
6Hoffenheim147252824423
7Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt145632416821
8Freiburg146351723-621
9Augsburg144552327-417
10Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach144462831-316
11Wolfsburg145181825-716
12Werder Bremen144282027-714
13Heidenheim144282130-914
14VfL BochumVfL Bochum142751529-1413
15Union BerlinUnion Berlin133191528-1310
16FC Koln132381024-149
17SV Darmstadt 98142391737-209
18Mainz 05Mainz131571226-148

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