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Bundesliga

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Bundesliga | Gameweek 11
Oct 21, 2022 at 7.30pm UK
Coface Arena
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Mainz
5 - 0
FC Koln

Ingvartsen (11' pen.), Kohr (35'), Stach (40'), Caricol (73'), Onisiwo (84')
FT(HT: 3-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and FC Koln, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Lubeck 0-3 Mainz
Tuesday, October 18 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

FC Koln

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: FC Koln 3-2 Augsburg
Sunday, October 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 38.24%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 36.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.19%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05DrawFC Koln
36.34% (0.061000000000007 0.06)25.42% (0.013999999999999 0.01)38.24% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Both teams to score 56.23% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.39% (-0.053000000000004 -0.05)47.62% (0.054000000000002 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.18% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)69.82% (0.050999999999988 0.05)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.47% (0.010999999999996 0.01)25.53% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.61% (0.015000000000001 0.02)60.39% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)
FC Koln Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.51% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)24.49% (0.064 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.05% (-0.088000000000001 -0.09)58.95% (0.088999999999999 0.09)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 36.34%
    FC Koln 38.24%
    Draw 25.42%
Mainz 05DrawFC Koln
1-0 @ 8.54% (0.022 0.02)
2-1 @ 8.2% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.83% (0.016 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.73% (0.004 0)
3-0 @ 2.65% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.62% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-1 @ 1.27% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 0.91% (0.003 0)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 36.34%
1-1 @ 12.01% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.25% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.77% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 1.23% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.42%
0-1 @ 8.8% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-2 @ 8.45% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.19% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.96% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.9% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.7% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.39% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.02% (-0.006 -0.01)
2-4 @ 0.95% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 38.24%

How you voted: Mainz vs FC Koln

Mainz 05
51.2%
Draw
25.0%
FC Koln
23.8%
164
Head to Head
Apr 9, 2022 2.30pm
FC Koln
3-2
Mainz 05
Skhiri (60'), Ljubicic (78'), Kilian (82')
Chabot (34'), Modeste (79')
Burkardt (14'), Onisiwo (55')
Caricol (36'), Stach (65')
Nov 21, 2021 4.30pm
Mainz 05
1-1
FC Koln
Burkardt (41')
Bell (42'), Szalai (90+1')
Ozcan (47')
Duda (54')
> Preview
Apr 11, 2021 5pm
FC Koln
2-3
Mainz 05
Duda (43' pen.), Skhiri (61')
Duda (22'), Katterbach (34')
Boetius (11'), Onisiwo (65'), Barreiro (90+1')
Mwene (42')
Dec 12, 2020 2.30pm
Mainz 05
0-1
FC Koln

Niakhate (37'), Latza (45+1'), Onisiwo (67'), Stoger (75')
Rexhbecaj (55')
Ozcan (70'), Duda (75'), Horn (81')
Duda (76')
May 17, 2020 2.30pm
FC Koln
2-2
Mainz 05