Bundesliga Gameweek 5
Mainz
Oct 10, 2026 2.30pm
Mewa Arena
B. Leverkusen

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
Sep 19, 2026 2.30pm
Borussia M'bach 3 - 4 Mainz
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Phillip Tietz

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Last game
Sep 20, 2026 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen 2 - 0 RB Leipzig
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Patrik Schick

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 38.69%. A win for Mainz 05 has a probability of 36.78% and a draw has a probability of 24.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (7.96%) and 0-2 (5.73%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win is 2-1 (8.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.72%).

Result

Mainz 05 36.78% ▲ (+0.47)
Draw 24.52% ▼ (-0.09)
Bayer Leverkusen 38.69% ▼ (-0.40)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.26% ▼ (-0.68)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.86%
Under 1.5 21.14%
Over 2.5 56.92% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 43.04% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 3.5 34.33% ▼ (-1.13)
Under 3.5 65.67% ▲ (+1.13)
Over 4.5 20.27% ▼ (-0.79)
Under 4.5 79.73% ▲ (+0.80)

First Half Winner

Mainz 05 30.1% ▲ (+0.39)
Draw 37.52% ▲ (+0.65)
Bayer Leverkusen 32.38% ▼ (-1.02)

Team To Score First

Mainz 05 45.47% ▼ (-0.86)
No Goal 5.73% ▲ (+0.06)
Bayer Leverkusen 48.8% ▲ (+0.80)

Corners

Over 8 57.87% ▲ (+1.15)
Equal 8 11.43% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 8 30.7% ▼ (-1.15)
Over 9 46.24% ▲ (+1.06)
Equal 9 11.63% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 9 42.13% ▼ (-1.15)
Over 10.5 35.37% ▲ (+0.91)
Under 10.5 64.63% ▼ (-0.92)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 1.5 40.38% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 1.5 59.62% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 2.5 17.25% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 82.75% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 6.18% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 3.5 93.82% ▲ (+0.10)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5 72.57% ▼ (-0.39)
Under 0.5 27.43% ▲ (+0.38)
Over 1.5 41.73% ▼ (-0.62)
Under 1.5 58.27% ▲ (+0.62)
Over 2.5 18.35% ▼ (-0.65)
Under 2.5 81.65% ▲ (+0.66)
Over 3.5 6.8% ▼ (-0.46)
Under 3.5 93.2% ▲ (+0.47)

Score analysis

Mainz 05 36.78%
Draw 24.53%
Bayer Leverkusen 38.7%
Mainz 05
2-1 @ 8.38% ▲ (+0.35)
1-0 @ 7.46% ▼ (-0.06)
2-0 @ 5.49% ▲ (+0.12)
3-1 @ 3.78% ▼ (-0.11)
3-2 @ 2.91% ▼ (-0.10)
3-0 @ 2.78% ▲ (+0.30)
Other @ 5.98% ▼ (-0.04)
Total : 36.78%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.72%
2-2 @ 6.28% ▼ (-0.09)
0-0 @ 5.73% ▲ (+0.06)
3-3 @ 1.6% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.2% ▼ (-0.06)
Total : 24.53%
Bayer Leverkusen
1-2 @ 8.46% ▲ (+0.31)
0-1 @ 7.96% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 5.73% ▼ (-0.07)
1-3 @ 4% ▼ (-0.17)
2-3 @ 2.98% ▼ (-0.21)
0-3 @ 2.97% ▲ (+0.17)
Other @ 6.6% ▼ (-0.41)
Total : 38.7%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
B. Leverkusen
Feb 28, 2026 2.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT BayArena
Mainz
  • Axel Tape 46' yellowcard
  • Ibrahim Maza 59' yellowcard
  • Martin Terrier 59' yellowcard
  • Christian Kofane 72' yellowcard
  • Aleix García 82' yellowcard
  • Jarell Quansah 88' goal
  • goal Sheraldo Becker 67'
  • yellowcard Silas 69'
  • yellowcard Danny da Costa 81'
  • yellowcard Lennard Maloney 89'
Bundesliga
Mainz
Oct 18, 2025 2.30pm
3
4
HT : 0 0
FT
B. Leverkusen
Bundesliga Gameweek 34
Mainz
May 17, 2025 2.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT Mewa Arena
B. Leverkusen
  • Paul Nebel 35' goal
  • Stefan Bell 40' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Burkardt 63' goal
  • Andreas Hanche-Olsen 81' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Exequiel Palacios 40'
  • goal Patrik Schick 49'
  • yellowcard Aleix Garcia 45'+7'
  • goal Patrik Schick 54'
  • yellowcard Piero Hincapie 59'
  • yellowcard Xabi Alonso 68'
  • yellowcard Arthur 68'
  • yellowcard Xabi Alonso 68'
  • yellowcard Jonathan Tah 83'
  • yellowcard Florian Wirtz 87'
Bundesliga Gameweek 17
B. Leverkusen
Jan 14, 2025 7.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT BayArena
Mainz
  • Alex Grimaldo 48' goal
  • Nordi Mukiele 69' yellowcard
  • Granit Xhaka 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Armindo Sieb 17'
  • yellowcard Stefan Bell 51'
  • yellowcard Anthony Caci 68'
  • yellowcard Armindo Sieb 90'+1'
Bundesliga Gameweek 23
B. Leverkusen
Feb 23, 2024 7.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT BayArena
Mainz
  • Granit Xhaka 3' goal
  • Jeremie Frimpong 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Xabi Alonso 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Tah 49' yellowcard
  • Robert Andrich 68' goal
  • Florian Wirtz 74' yellowcard
  • goal Dominik Kohr 7'
  • yellowcard Karim Onisiwo 42'
  • yellowcard Dominik Kohr 52'
  • yellowcard Robin Zentner 54'
  • yellowcard Anthony Caci 66'
  • redcard Jessic Ngankam 80'
  • yellowcard Phillipp Mwene 85'
Bundesliga Gameweek 6
Mainz
Sep 30, 2023 2.30pm
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT OPEL ARENA
B. Leverkusen
  • Edimilson Fernandes 58' yellowcard
  • Brajan Gruda 75' yellowcard
  • Marco Richter 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Leandro Barreiro 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Granit Xhaka 4'
  • goal Sepp van den Berg 18' (OG)
  • goal Alex Grimaldo 59'
  • goal Jonas Hofmann 65'

Form Data

Borussia M'bach 3 - 4 Mainz
Mainz 1 - 3 Frankfurt
Hamburger SV 0 - 5 Mainz
Mainz 0 - 0 SC Paderborn
Krieschow 0 - 9 Mainz
Mainz 2 - 1 Bournemouth
B. Leverkusen 2 - 0 RB Leipzig
B. Leverkusen 2 - 0 Celje
Augsburg 2 - 2 B. Leverkusen
B. Leverkusen 4 - 0 Union Berlin
Elversberg 3 - 2 B. Leverkusen
Wiesbaden 0 - 4 B. Leverkusen