Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 70.5%. A draw had a probability of 20.26% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 9.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.33%) and 3-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.14%) , while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17% likelihood.