Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 61.55%. A draw had a probability of 23.95% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 14.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.21%) and 2-1 (10.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%) , while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (5.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.