Nations League Gameweek 3
Belgium
Oct 2, 2026 7.45pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Stade Maurice Dufrasne
Turkey
  • Kevin De Bruyne 10' goal
  • Dodi Lukébakio 26' yellowcard
  • Youri Tielemans 30' yellowcard
  • Kevin De Bruyne 59' goal
  • Romelu Lukaku 76' goal
  • Kevin De Bruyne 80' yellowcard
  • Nathan Ngoy 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Abdülkerim Bardakcı  56'
  • yellowcard Merih Demiral 71'
  • yellowcard Arda Güler 90'+2'

Belgium vs Turkey - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Belgium

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Italy 0 - 2 Belgium

Turkey

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Turkey 0 - 1 France

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 49.45%. A win for Turkey had a probability of 29.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.65%) and 2-0 (6.08%). The likeliest Turkey win was 1-2 (7.02%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.

Result

Belgium 49.45% ▲ (+0.08)
Draw 21.13% ▲ (+0.09)
Turkey 29.45% ▼ (-0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

62.44% ▼ (-0.13)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.76% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 15.24% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 2.5 65.94% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 2.5 34.06% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 3.5 43.51% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 3.5 56.49% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 4.5 28.15% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 4.5 71.85% ▲ (+0.10)

First Half Winner

Belgium 36.21% ▼ (-0.01)
Draw 38.34% ▲ (+0.02)
Turkey 25.45%

Team To Score First

Belgium 58.45% ▲ (+0.07)
No Goal 3.5% ▲ (+0.05)
Turkey 38.05% ▼ (-0.11)

Corners

Over 8 61.47% ▼ (-0.11)
Equal 8 11.13%
Under 8 27.39% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 9 49.79% ▼ (-0.10)
Equal 9 11.68% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 9 38.53% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 10.5 38.57% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 10.5 61.43% ▲ (+0.08)

Belgium Goals

Over 1.5 54.42% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 1.5 45.58% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 2.5 30% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 70% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 3.5 13.37% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 86.63% ▲ (+0.01)

Turkey Goals

Over 0.5 66.25% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 0.5 33.75% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 1.5 36.87% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 1.5 63.13% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 2.5 16.05% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 2.5 83.95% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 3.5 5.93% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 3.5 94.07% ▲ (+0.05)

Score analysis

Belgium 49.46%
Draw 21.13%
Turkey 29.44%
Belgium
2-1 @ 9.02% ▲ (+0.03)
1-0 @ 6.65% ▲ (+0.03)
2-0 @ 6.08% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 6.03% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 4.56% ▲ (+0.05)
3-2 @ 4.13% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 12.99% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 49.46%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.21% ▲ (+0.05)
2-2 @ 6.13% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 3.5% ▲ (+0.05)
3-3 @ 1.91% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.38% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 21.13%
Turkey
1-2 @ 7.02%
0-1 @ 5.12% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 3.54%
2-3 @ 3.19% ▼ (-0.04)
1-3 @ 3.18% ▼ (-0.03)
0-3 @ 1.84%
Other @ 5.55% ▼ (-0.07)
Total : 29.44%

Form Data

Belgium 0 - 1 France
Italy 0 - 2 Belgium
Spain 2 - 1 Belgium
USA 1 - 4 Belgium
Belgium 3 - 2 Senegal
New Zealand 1 - 5 Belgium
Turkey 1 - 4 Italy
Turkey 0 - 1 France
Turkey 3 - 2 USA
Turkey 0 - 1 Paraguay
Australia 2 - 0 Turkey
Venezuela 1 - 2 Turkey

Build-up

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