Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 51.52%. A win for Charleroi had a probability of 24.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.77%) and 2-0 (8.77%). The likeliest Charleroi win was 0-1 (6.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.