Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 44.33%. A win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.3%) and 2-0 (5.94%). The likeliest Sint-Truiden win was 1-2 (7.66%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.