Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for Gent had a probability of 27.04% and a draw had a probability of 24.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Gent win was 1-2 (7.01%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.