Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 51.27%. A win for Genk had a probability of 25.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Genk win was 1-2 (6.53%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.