Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charleroi win with a probability of 43.42%. A win for Mechelen had a probability of 29.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charleroi win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Mechelen win was 0-1 (9.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Charleroi would win this match.